Retention Curve Creator


Fit a Regression Curve to Your Data


Enter your app's observed retention - from any cohort you like - to generate a model.


     

*A D30 retention observation is optional, but including that data point can greatly increase the accuracy of long-term predictions. If you don't know your D30 retention, leave it at 0%.


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The Details


Day 1 (D1) retention is the percentage of your users that return to the app the day after they install. In general, day n (Dn) retention is the percentage of users who return exactly n days after they install.


The retention curve is typically a function of the form r(n)=anb, where each app has its own values for the coefficient a and the exponent b that best fit their data. Dn retention is modelled (predicted) by r(n) for any value of n.


For example, if a game's retention curve is defined by the function


r(n) = 0.396 * n -0.472


then D120 retention is predicted to be


0.396 * 120 -0.472 = 0.041 = 4.1%


In other words, if 1,000 people install today, 41 are expected to use the app exactly 120 days later.