Days to Break Even
How many days until an ad campaign shows a positive return?
It looks like you haven't completed Step 1 yet. To begin, let Professor Arpdau help calculate your retention curve parameters.
Days to Break Even
For an ad campaign, the days to break-even is a measure of how long it takes to achieve a 100% return on ad spend (ROAS); i.e., the number of days m after a cohort's install date when that cohort's revenue first exceeds its acquisition cost. This is when:
LTVm = CPI
where CPI is the cohort's cost per install.
In the LTV Predictor, we calculate D7 ROAS targets based on a desired number of break-even days. Here we generalize this concept to any early signal, not just D7.
When a new ad campaign begins, you can measure its CPI. After n days, you can observe LTVn for the cohort of installs attributed to that campaign. Sit back and let Professor Arpdau apply your app's monetization curve to solve for m, the day when this cohort is expected to become profitable.