LTV Predictor


What is your expected lifetime value (LTV) for new users?


To estimate LTV, Professor Arpdau multiplies average revenue per daily active user (ARPDAU) by the sum of your game's retention curve.


$  Your app's median ARPDAU over the most recent 7 or 28 days is a good estimate.


Explore different retention scenarios and see how your LTV is affected.

     

*Provide at least two observations. To exclude a data point, set it to 0%.


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The Details on LTV


LTVn is the average revenue derived from each user during the first n days after they install your app. It is calculated as a historical average over a cohort of users who installed more than n days ago as:


total cohort revenue by Dn / cohort size


But what about for large values of n? And what about the new users who install today? One common means of predicting LTV is to multiply average revenue per daily active user (ARPDAU) by the expected player days (i.e., the summation of the retention curve).


If your current ARPDAU or retention have improved, predicted LTV for new users will increase.